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Abstract
AbstractIndividual perception of vaccine safety is an important factor in determining a person's adherence to a vaccination program and its consequences for disease control. This perception, or belief, about the safety of a given vaccine, is not a static parameter but a variable subject to environmental influence. To complicate matters, perception of risk (or safety) does not correspond to actual risk. In this paper we propose a way to model the dynamics of such beliefs in the context of a realistic epidemiological scenario. The methodology proposed is based on Bayesian inference, and can be extended to model more complex belief systems associated with decision models.
Highlights
Since early vaccination campaigns against smallpox, vaccination policies have been a matter of debate [1]: mass vaccination versus blocking strategies; compulsory versus voluntary, are some highly debated issues
When serious disease risk is too high, on the other hand, vaccine coverage may increase above that required to guarantee population protection [5]. We illustrate these behaviors with two examples: The MMR vaccine scare In the UK, MMR vaccine uptake started to decline after a controversial study linking MMR vaccine to autism [6]
To argue for the relevance of this issue, we present a model of vaccinating behaviour with dynamic belief updates, modeled after real scenarios of vaccine and disease scare recorded in the recent literature
Summary
Since early vaccination campaigns against smallpox, vaccination policies have been a matter of debate [1]: mass vaccination versus blocking strategies; compulsory versus voluntary, are some highly debated issues. Increased perception of vaccine risks and lowered perception of disease risks has challenged previous willingness to vaccinate (fundamental for the success of any immunization program, either voluntary or compulsory) [3]. In an attempt to find ways to restore this confidence, several studies were carried out to identify factors associated with parent’s unwillingness to vaccinate their children They found that ‘Not receiving unbiased and adequate information from health professionals about vaccine safety’ and ‘media’s adverse publicity’ were the most common reasons influencing uptake [7]. Other important factors were: ‘lack of belief in information from the government sources’; ‘fear of general practitioners promoting the vaccine for personal reasons’; and ‘media scare’ Note that during this period the risk of acquiring measles was very low due to previously high vaccination coverage
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