Dynamic Modeling of Professional Mobility in the Context of Labor Market Precarization

Abstract

The pandemic has become a catalyst for the inevitable process of digitalization of communications, significantly changing the organization and technology of professional activity around the world. There has been a radical change in labor market trends due to the digital transformation of the economy, changes in the unemployment rate, the transition of professional groups to the remote work format due to the external need for isolation to minimize the spread of Covid-19. The uncertainty of the labor market development conditions, as well as changes in the unemployment rate among the young subset of employable population, cause the emergence of various forms of unstable employment. The presence of high social risks, the need to develop mechanisms to increase the level of protection of the population, ensuring the growth of youth welfare and the formation of an energy saving policy aimed, inter alia, at the innovative development of the labor economy, determine the relevance of developing a set of models for predicting precarization of the labor market. To describe the dynamics of the labor market development, we constructed a model for assessing the risks for young professionals from key sectors of the economy who enter the precariat during the pandemic. Based on the provisions of the theory of positional games and behavioral economics, we have developed a multifactorial dynamic model for predicting professional mobility and precarization of the labor market, considering the fulfillment of Nash equilibrium conditions. The model allows you to track and predict the professional mobility of qualified youth depending on the intensity of the labor market, wage levels and the degree of digital maturity of companies in the region.