Abstract
The Gompertz growth curve is used to describe the urban water population, the linear function is used to represent the per capita disposable income, and the domestic water demand is described combined with the factors of population, income, and the water-saving consciousness. The VES production function is used to describe the production function of the domestic water supply. Combined with system dynamics, the supply and demand management model of urban domestic water in Jiangsu province, China, is developed. The process of water supply investment and labor input in the urban domestic water system is studied with two depreciation methods: the straight-line depreciation method and the sum of years digits method. In the case that the water consumption population is expected to decline, four water demand scenarios composed of different per capita disposable income and the growth rate of water-saving consciousness are investigated. Investment and labor input are taken as control variables to conduct water supply and demand simulations for the four scenarios. The results show that the control schemes in all four scenarios reach a balance between water supply and demand. Moreover, the investment of the sum of years digits method is larger than that of the straight-line depreciation method in 2005–2019 but less than that of the straight-line depreciation method in 2020–2034. The sum of years digits method has the characteristics of more depreciation in the early stage and less depreciation in the later stage, which is conducive to timely compensation for the large loss of fixed assets in the early stage.
Highlights
Received: 30 November 2021In recent years, rapid economic development, urbanization, and the continuous improvements of people’s living standards have made the contradiction between domestic water supply and demand increasingly prominent in China
Province of China as the subject investigated, considering the factors affecting domestic water demand, such as urban and rural residents’ water consumption population, per capita disposable income and water-saving consciousness, this paper constructs a system dynamics (SD) model to study the balance of domestic water supply and demand in different scenarios
The data on the domestic water consumption population and water input is collected from Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook in 2005–2019 and the amount of money calculated according to the fixed price in 2005
Summary
Rapid economic development, urbanization, and the continuous improvements of people’s living standards have made the contradiction between domestic water supply and demand increasingly prominent in China. The production function model is widely used in calculating economic benefits, technological progress, input-output and economic forecasting It is used for the study of urban water supply and demand. Li et al combined the C-D function with the system dynamics model to manage the supply and demand of urban industrial water [20]. Much of the existing literature considers the population, economic, and natural factors when developing the domestic water demand subsystem, but few studies consider the influence factor of water-saving consciousness. The contributions of this paper are as follows It investigates the changes in urban water demand under the combined effect of population, income, and water-saving consciousness. The VES production function is used to analyze water supply production, and the investment and labor input are dynamically adjusted to meet water demand. This paper considers the application of the sum of years digits method, one of the accelerated depreciation methods of fixed assets, and compares the two methods in simulation
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