Abstract
BackgroundCystic echinococcosis is one of the most severe helminth zoonosis with a drastic impact on human health and livestock industry. Investigating optimal control strategy and assessing the crucial factors are essential for developing countermeasures to mitigate this disease.MethodsTwo compartment models were formulated to study the dynamics of cystic echinococcosis transmission, to evaluate the effectiveness of various control measures, and to find the optimal control strategy. Sensitive analyses were conducted by obtaining PRCCs and contour plot was used to evaluate the effect of key parameters on the basic reproduction number. Based on forward–backward sweep method, numerical simulations were employed to investigate effects of key factors on the transmission of cystic echinococcosis and to obtain the optimal control strategy.ResultsThe food resources of stray dog and invalid sheep vaccination rate, which are always neglected, were significant to the transmission and control of cystic echinococcosis. Numerical simulations suggest that, the implementation of optimal control strategy can significantly reduce the infections. Improving the cost of health education and domestic dog deworming could not decrease human infections.ConclusionsOur study showed that only a long-term use of the optimal control measures can eliminate the disease. Meanwhile, during the intervention, sheep vaccination and stray dogs disposing should be emphasized ahead of domestic dogs deworming to minimize the control cost. Simultaneously reducing other wild intermediate hosts and strengthening the sheep vaccination as well as disposing the stray dogs would be most effective.
Highlights
Cystic echinococcosis is one of the most severe helminth zoonosis with a drastic impact on human health and livestock industry
The latest estimation for the global burden of cystic echinococcosis (CE) was 184,000 new cases per annum resulting in 184,000 disability adjusted life years (DALYs), which led to a loss of 760 million dollars a year [2, 3]
Our model considers other important control measures of CE, such as health education, deworming treatment for dogs, and disposals of stray dogs
Summary
Cystic echinococcosis is one of the most severe helminth zoonosis with a drastic impact on human health and livestock industry. The latest estimation for the global burden of cystic echinococcosis (CE) was 184,000 new cases per annum resulting in 184,000 disability adjusted life years (DALYs), which led to a loss of 760 million dollars a year [2, 3]. The data collected from the studies of He et al [11, 12] and Sichuan Province [13] showed that, despite the interventions described above, the number of CE human cases fluctuates from 2007 to 2011, and increases between 2011 and 2016 (Fig. 1a). The trend of the infection rate of dogs is similar to that of human cases, fluctuating between 2007 and 2013, and increasing significantly between 2013 and 2016 (Fig. 1b triangle line). Unlike the prevalence of humans and dogs, the infection ratio of sheep keeps declining in the years from 2007 to 2016 (Fig. 1b dot line)
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