Dynamic Model of Segara Anakan Mangrove Crab’s Habitat Management, Indonesia

Abstract

The mangrove area in Segara Anakan lagoon (Cilacap, Central Java) is a good habitat for mangrove crabs and other mangrove biota life and growth. However, in recent years, the condition of the mangroves in the area has been degraded due to land conversion. This condition also occurs in the production of mangrove crabs in the Cilacap Regency which has decreased (2012-2017 production data). Good management efforts of the mangrove forests will also have a good impact on the growth and production of these biota in nature. This study aims to create a dynamic model of mangrove crab habitat management at Segara Anakan Lagoon in order to increase the optimization of mangrove crab production in that regency. The study method used was a dynamic systems approach that considers the relationship between crab production and the conversion of mangrove land. The results of the study showed a model of the relationship between mangrove crab production and changes in mangrove area in the Segara Anakan area with the equation: Y = 14951X − 88357 (R2 = 0.5382), with structural validation as follows: land conversion increases (rice field area) (+) and then increase the income from rice fields (+). Meanwhile, land conversion reduces mangrove area (-), reduces crab habitat function (-), reduces crab catch (-), further reduces mud crab production, and finally reduces income from mud crab production (-). The validation of the model output is the average mean error (AME) of crabs at 4.93%, while the AME of mangroves is 7.38%. This model can be concluded as a valid (acceptable) model and can be continued to the simulation stage.