Dynamic Model of Port Throughput's Influence on Regional Economy

Abstract

Wang, R. and Tan, Q., 2019. Dynamic model of port throughput's influence on regional economy. In: Guido-Aldana, P.A. and Mulahasan, S. (eds.), Advances in Water Resources and Exploration. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 93, pp. 811–816. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.Port is the gathering point and hub of land-water transportation equipment and condition. Port throughput has a great influence on regional economy. This paper analyzes the dynamic model of port throughput affecting regional economy, and puts forward a dynamic model of port throughput affecting regional economy based on co-integration and error correction model. The dynamic model of port and regional economic development will be established by econometric analysis techniques such as co-integration and error correction model and Granger causality test. Co-integration analysis and error correction model are designed to solve the difficulties existing in the traditional econometric analysis technology for non-stationary economic time series analysis. After testing the cointegration relationship between variables, the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables is embodied by error correction model. The stability test of the regional economic growth evaluation model is carried out by using the correlation F test method to realize the recursive analysis of the influence of the port throughput on the regional economy. Finally, through the empirical analysis of the performance test, the study shows that coastal port construction and local economic construction promote each other, therefore, the development and construction of coastal ports should be fully combined with the hydrologic conditions of local waterways. And promote the development of coastal shipping according to local conditions, and should pay attention to the short-term fluctuation of the port, timely take measures, so as to ensure the steady development of coastal economy.