Dynamic Model for Drinking Water Consumption in Times of SARS-CoV-2 in Corazón City, Pangua, Cotopaxi, Ecuador, South America

Abstract

The urban parish, Corazón city, is located in the Pangua canton, Cotopaxi province, located in the foothills of the Andes Mountain range, where the water supply of drinking water is currently carried out by gravity with a storage tank to the population. This research analyzed the water supply during the period of confinement due to the Covid-19 pandemic. This was based on the change in use, behavior, and losses to the system. In order to population conditions, data from registered volumes were employed, distributed and consumed volumes registers were the variables used to develop the dynamic model, which has helped to estimate the charge in drinking water consumption due to the pandemic lockdown. Hence, the current consumption during the confinement period was determined, and the forecast considering the actual conditions. Finally, the dynamic model of water consumption was proposed; the results obtained showed that water consumption had not experienced any significant change during the social distancing period, and the maximum growth rate of 0.2755 will be reached in December 2020. A sharp change in water consumption tendency was probably not observed because the majority of Corazón city population have been working from home before and after the pandemic. To conclude, it is necessary to remark that thanks to the data provided, it was possible to model this behavior within mathematical formulas and the Vensim Software, having results close to reality; Indeed, two critical scenarios have been considered on the supply system under analysis.