Dynamic interlinkages between the crude oil and gold and stock during Russia-Ukraine War: evidence from an extended TVP-VAR analysis.

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine significantly influences the oil market. We employ a time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) in combination with an extended joint connectedness approach to identify the sources of the oil market's volatility by studying interlinkages between the crude oil and gold and stock market by characterizing the connectedness of four markets starting from January 1, 2018 to April 8, 2022. Our attention is mostly paid to the period marked by the event that Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, 2022. Our results demonstrate that the war shocks appear to influence the system-wide dynamic connectedness, which signifies the interlinkages among the considered markets. Net total directional connectedness suggests that the oil and gold markets appear to be the net transmitter of spillover shocks in the system. However, there are shifts in the roles of these two markets during the time of the Russia-Ukraine war shock. Pairwise connectedness highlights the significance of the oil market in transmitting the adverse influences of shocks to other markets, especially during the Russia-Ukraine war.