Dynamic incorporation of real world evidence within the framework of adaptive design

Abstract

ABSTRACT For the clinical studies in rare diseases or small patient populations, having an adequately powered randomized controlled trial is further complicated by variability. As such, sample size re-estimation can be a useful tool if at an interim look the trial sample size needs to be increased to achieve adequate power to reject the null hypothesis. Meanwhile, borrowing or extrapolating information from real-world data or real-world evidence has gained increasing use in trial design and analysis since 2014. Combining these two strategies, high-quality real-world data, if leveraged properly, has the potential to generate real-world evidence that can assist interim decision-making, lower enrollment burden, and reduce study timeline and costs. With proper borrowing from historical control, some of the challenges in these high unmet medical need studies could be resolved considerably. We examine the incorporation of real-world evidence within the framework of adaptive design strategy in pediatric type II diabetes trials where recruitment has been challenging and the completion is hardly on time. Simulations under various scenarios are conducted to assess the borrowing strategy, i.e., the matching method in combination of sample size re-estimation. Comparisons of performance metrics are presented to showcase the advantages of proposed method.