Dynamic game model for finding the equilibrium level of migration flows

Abstract

Effective regulation of labor migration implies the need to predict the volume, structure and direction of migration. Model description and forecasting of migration processes is necessary to optimize the flow of labor resources between labor markets that arise as a result of new trends in migration and reform of society. Weak regulation of labor migration in the absence of a complete information base necessary for migrants to decide on the optimal choice of the region of destination of migration, leads to an increase in the share of labor migrants employed in the informal sector of the economy, which as a result reduces the potential of human capital in the regions. The analysis of migration processes shows the need to simulate the dynamics of migration flows, which allows to describe the trends in the redistribution of labor in the current period and to make forecasts for the short-term long-term perspective. In this regard, a number of existing types of models of population migration were considered and dynamic models of population migration were based on them. We developed a model tool based on a dynamic game model of labor migration, which determines the value of migration flows in the conditions of uneven distribution of income levels of the population in the regional labor markets. In accordance with the proposed model, migration flows tend primarily to regions with more attractive working conditions, in our case – to regions with higher wages. Based on the data obtained in the simulation, we can talk about a significant decrease in the average wage level in the sectors of the labor market occupied by migrants in the regions of attraction.Effective regulation of labor migration implies the need to predict the volume, structure and direction of migration. Model description and forecasting of migration processes is necessary to optimize the flow of labor resources between labor markets that arise as a result of new trends in migration and reform of society. Weak regulation of labor migration in the absence of a complete information base necessary for migrants to decide on the optimal choice of the region of destination of migration, leads to an increase in the share of labor migrants employed in the informal sector of the economy, which as a result reduces the potential of human capital in the regions. The analysis of migration processes shows the need to simulate the dynamics of migration flows, which allows to describe the trends in the redistribution of labor in the current period and to make forecasts for the short-term long-term perspective. In this regard, a number of existing types of models of population migration were considered and...