Dynamic forest vegetation models for predicting impacts of climate change on forests: An Indian perspective

Abstract

Understanding climate change vulnerability of Indian forests has received wider attention in recent years and a number of assessments with different approaches have emerged over time. These assessments have mostly used climate-sensitive vegetation models to explain the climate change impacts. In these studies, trees constituting a particular forest are often clubbed together into small number of groups having similar functional traits referred as Plant Functional Types (PFTs). Most of the Forest Vegetation Models (FVMs) are still in their developmental stage and there have been attempts at various levels to develop more versatile and precise models. Several developing countries, including India, still lag behind in developing dynamic vegetation models (DVMs), which could be appropriate for the local applications to predict the impact on forests at regional level. This is restrained mainly because of the lack of long-term observations with respect to various interacting biotic, abiotic and climatic (or environmental) variables in a forest ecosystem, like water and nitrogen use efficiency, response to elevated concentration of CO2, nutrient cycling, net primary productivity, etc. The observations on influence of the environmental variables on forest ecosystems are available in discrete form. Existing FVMs integrate observations more appropriately for their place of origin for which they have been developed. Different types of forests in different climatic zones are supposed to respond differently to climatic changes. Hence, it is imperative that models are developed for the specific biogeographic regions in order to predict the influences more accurately. It may not be wise to use existing FVMs in their pristine form for all of the region without considering the regional influences. Various challenges associated with the usage of the generic models of external origin with special reference to Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) model - being widely used and accepted in Indian policy documents- is presented in this paper. We also discuss on the need for developing a regional FVM for climate change impact studies, so that the impact prediction is more precise and reliable.