Dynamic financial distress prediction based on class-imbalanced data batches

Abstract

This study proposes two approaches for dynamic financial distress prediction (FDP) based on class-imbalanced data batches by considering both concept drift and class imbalance. One is based on sliding time window and synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) and the other is based on sliding time window and majority class partition. Support vector machine, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and logistic regression are used as base classifiers in the experiments on a real-world dataset. The results indicate that the two approaches perform better than the pure dynamic FDP (DFDP) models without class imbalance processing and the static FDP models either with or without class imbalance processing.