Dynamic evolution characteristics and hazard assessment of compound drought/waterlogging and low temperature events for maize

Abstract

Hazard assessment is fundamental in the field of disaster risk management. With the increase in global warming, compound water and temperature events have become more frequent. Current research lacks risk assessments of low temperatures and their compound events, necessitating relevant hazard assessment work to improve the accuracy and diversity of maize disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. This study comparatively analyzed the dynamic evolution characteristics and hazards of compound drought/waterlogging and low temperature events (CDLEs and CWLEs) for maize in the Songliao Plain during different growth periods from 1981 to 2020. First, composite drought/waterlogging and low temperature magnitude indices (CDLMI and CWLMI) were constructed to quantify the intensity of CDLEs and CWLEs by fitting non-exceedance probabilities. Next, static and dynamic hazard assessment models were developed by fitting probability density and cumulative probability density curves to CDLMI and CWLMI. The results showed that the correlations between SPRI and LTI across different decades were mainly negative during the three growth periods. The hazard ratings for both CDLEs and CWLEs were relatively high in the northern part of the study area, consistent with the higher occurrence, duration, and severity of both CDLEs and CWLEs at higher latitudes. Relative to 2001–2010, the center of gravity of hazard shifted southward for CDLEs and northward for CWLEs in 2011–2020. The mean duration, frequency, and hazard were generally higher for CWLEs, but CDLEs were associated with more severe maize yield reductions. This study provides new insights into compound disaster risk assessment, and the research methodology can be generalized to other agricultural growing areas to promote sustainable development of agricultural systems and food security.