Dynamic Evolution and Trend Prediction in Coupling Coordination between Energy Consumption and Green Development in China

Abstract

In light of the pressing concerns about worldwide warming and environmental degradation, understanding the nexus between energy consumption and green development has become vital to fostering a low-carbon transition in energy consumption, and promoting environmentally friendly development. After exploring the connotations of energy consumption and green development, this paper constructed evaluation systems for energy consumption and green development. By leveraging quantitative methods; such as the entropy method, coupling coordination model, spatial Markov model, and gray model GM (1, 1); we conducted an empirical study into the dynamism and evolutionary trends in the coupling coordination degree between energy consumption and green development in China, spanning from 2006 to 2020. Our findings delineate several key trends: (1) overall, the levels of each system have witnessed a marked increase, with the average energy consumption slightly exceeding that of green development; (2) the coupling coordination degree has displayed a consistent rise over time, with spatial distribution patterns exhibiting a “higher in the south, lower in the north” and a “center-edge” characteristic; (3) the dynamic evolution of coupling coordination types manifests a stability, continuity, and heterogeneity, eliciting distinct effects across different neighbourhood types; (4) within the forecast period, the coupling coordination degree among Chinese provinces is projected to undergo further enhancement, with the majority of provinces transitioning from a barely coordinated stage to a coordinated development stage. Above all, to stimulate a more qualitative coupling coordination between energy consumption and green development, this paper provides relevant policy implications.