Abstract

Chemistry-transport models are increasingly used in Europe for estimating air quality or forecasting changes in pollution levels. But with this increased use of modeling arises the need of harmonizing the methodologies to determine the quality of air quality model applications. This is complex for planning applications, i.e. when models are used to assess the impact of realistic or virtual emission scenarios. In this work, the methodology based on the calculation of potencies proposed by Thunis and Clappier (2014) to analyze the model responses to emission reductions is applied on three different domains in Europe (Po valley, Southern Poland and Flanders). This methodology is further elaborated to facilitate the inter-comparison process and bring in a single diagram the possibility of differentiating long-term from short-term effects. This methodology is designed for model users to interpret their model results but also for policy-makers to help them defining intervention priorities. The methodology is applied to both daily PM10 and 8 h daily maximum ozone.

Highlights

  • Air quality models are increasingly used in Europe for simulating air quality

  • Based on the 13 LOTOS-EUROS air quality simulations, the indicators defined in Section 2 can be computed and the diagrams constructed for each geographical area and precursor

  • We introduce some assumptions to summarize these diagrams in order to intercompare the results obtained for all the three considered case studies

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Summary

Introduction

Air quality models are increasingly used in Europe for simulating air quality. In the past, assessment and reporting of air quality was largely based on monitoring data but the situation has changed in recent years when more emphasis has been put on the use of air quality models to complement monitoring data. In this work we apply and further develop the methodology proposed by Thunis and Clappier (2014) to illustrate to what extent this approach can support the evaluation of air quality models in planning mode, in the frame of an inter-comparison exercise This methodology is based on indicators and diagrams that aim at synthetizing in a systematic manner the key aspects of air quality model responses to emission changes. LOTOS-EUROS was applied over three different geographical areas in Europe (Benelux, South of Poland and Po Valley, Fig. 1) with a spatial resolution of 7 Â 7 km2 In these three domains, the emissions have been reduced in a specific sub-area of the domain (indicated by the dark grey shaded areas in Fig. 1: Flanders, Silesia and Lombardy, respectively) while emissions outside these areas are kept at base-case level for all scenarios. All simulations requested for O3 are already covered with those performed for PM10

Methodological overview
Potencies and indicators
Results
Application of the “potency diagram” over the Benelux region
Inter-comparison of model responses across geographical areas
Comparison with other studies
Conclusions
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