Dynamic evaluation method for Time-variant reliability of structural safety of Concrete-faced rockfill dam

Abstract

The evaluation of the structural safety risk for concrete-faced rockfill dams (CFRDs) is susceptible to the time-varying parameters and the environments of topography, geology, and operations. Traditional evaluation methods, due to their involvement in numerical simulation, cannot meet the current requirements for intelligent monitoring in terms of timeliness and practicality. Therefore, a dynamic evaluation method of reliability in CFRDs is proposed in this paper. Due to the nonlinear mapping relationship between the time-variant reliability and the monitoring characterizations of CFRDs, the long and short-term memory neural network (LSTM) and support vector machine (SVM) models are introduced to construct the potential functional relationships between the reliability sequences and the monitoring characterizations, and the matching between the accuracy of the two models and the frequency of monitoring characterizations has been fully studied, forming an adaptive evaluation model of safety risk for the CFRDs according to the different monitoring frequencies of different monitoring items. The application of Sanbanxi CFRD shows an average relative error of less than 1% and 5% for dam slope stability and slab cracking simulations, respectively. These results demonstrate that the LSTM and SVM models with adaptive monitoring frequency exhibit high fitting and prediction accuracy and applicability, and possess theoretical and engineering application value.