Dynamic estimation of future obsolete laptop flows and embedded critical raw materials: The case study of Greece.

Abstract

The coronavirus pandemic has turned school and university learning system from classroom-based to exclusively online all over the world. As this change is accompanied by a spike in demand of laptops, an excessive amount of obsolete devices will be witnessed in the near future. Laptops are the most valuable e-waste category containing a high content of numerous critical raw materials, thus their waste management is crucial. Considering the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the laptop lifespan, the future quantities and pieces of obsolete laptops in Greece are estimated (2016-2040), as well as the critical raw materials (CRMs) and precious metals (PMs) embedded in them, to illustrate the potential of recovering useful resources, thus contributing to a circular economy. To this end, dynamic material flow analysis is adopted, lifespan distribution is evaluated and future sales are predicted by the logistic model utilizing a bounding analysis. Then the future End-of-Life (EoL) laptop quantities are estimated taking time-varying parameters into consideration such as penetration rate, population, laptop weight and lifespan. This study is a dynamic estimation that avoids using average values adopted from literature that are not country specific. The provided information is useful for implementing national plans, improving the management of the most valuable category, EoL laptops, enhancing resources efficiency and contributing to a circular economy. The coronavirus pandemic has a similar impact on laptop sales in other countries, affecting their future laptop waste as well.