Dynamic estimation of end-of-life electric vehicle batteries in the EU-27 considering reuse, remanufacturing and recycling options

Abstract

With the rapid promotion of electric vehicles (EV) in the European Union (EU), a new e-waste category is emerging, the lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). LIBs require proper management through circular economy business models. These include Remanufacturing, Reuse and Recycling of LIBs to extend their life before valuable materials are recovered. Material and substance flow analysis with a 3-parameter Weibull distribution function are employed to quantify all battery waste flows and their embedded materials. The available LIBs for remanufacturing will be 113–301 thousand (6–31 GWh) by 2024–2034, while the capacity of Second Life (2 L) LIBs will be 212–617 GWh by 2040. The available 2 L capacity in Germany and France could effectively cover the demand for energy storage for photovoltaic systems in these countries, which have the highest EV adoption in the EU-27. The recycled metals Li, Co, Ni and Cu could meet 5.2–11.3% of the demand for new materials considering the recycling efficiencies of the 2020 EU Battery Directive.