Dynamic End-to-End Information Cascade Prediction Based on Neural Networks and Snapshot Capture

Abstract

Knowing how to effectively predict the scale of future information cascades based on the historical trajectory of information dissemination has become an important topic. It is significant for public opinion guidance; advertising; and hotspot recommendation. Deep learning technology has become a research hotspot in popularity prediction, but for complex social platform data, existing methods are challenging to utilize cascade information effectively. This paper proposes a novel end-to-end deep learning network CAC-G with cascade attention convolution (CAC). This model can stress the global information when learning node information and reducing errors caused by information loss. Moreover, a novel Dynamic routing-AT aggregation method is investigated and applied to aggregate node information to generate a representation of cascade snapshots. Then, the gated recurrent unit (GRU) is employed to learn temporal information. This study’s validity and generalization ability are verified in the experiments by applying CAC-G on two public datasets where CAC-G is better than the existing baseline methods.