Dynamic effect of economic growth on the persistence of suicide rates

Abstract

Positive and negative economic growth is closely related to the suicide rate. To answer the question whether economic development has a dynamic impact on this rate, we used a panel smooth transition autoregressive model to evaluate the threshold effect of economic growth rate on the persistence of suicide. The research period was from 1994 to 2020, and the results show that the suicide rate had a persistent effect, which varied over time depending on the transition variable within different threshold intervals. However, the persistent effect was manifested in different degrees with the change in the economic growth rate and as the lag period of the suicide rate increased, the effect of the influence gradually decreased. We investigated different lag periods and noted that the impact on the suicide rate was the strongest in the first year after an economic change and then reduced to be only marginal after three years. This means that the growth momentum of the suicide rate within the first two years after a change in the economic growth rate, should be included in policy considerations of how to prevent suicides.