Dynamic driving and counterfactual decomposition of the influencing factors of household energy consumption among provinces in China

Abstract

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2016, the Gaussian kernel density estimation was initially used to describe the characteristics of the inter-provincial differences in household energy consumption (HEC), a dynamic panel data model was established secondly to study the main factors affecting HEC, and finally the counterfactual decomposition method was used to calculate the contribution of each factor to the inter-provincial differences in HEC. The research results are shown as follows: First, the inter-provincial HEC in China shows a phenomenon of agglomeration and growth, and the HEC level of different regions presents difference and imbalance. Second, the logarithms of consumption habits, total population and residents' income have significant effects on the logarithm of HEC, the influence coefficients are 0.191, 0.073 and 0.745, respectively; HEC not only has significant inertia characteristics, but also has certain population size effect and wealth effect. Third, the logarithms of technological progress, urbanization and household energy price have significant effects on the logarithm of HEC, the influence coefficients are 0.864, 0.195 and −0.346, respectively; the HEC saved by technological transformation is not sufficient to offset the increase in HEC demand, urbanization can improve HEC significantly, but the household energy price significantly inhibits HEC. Finally, from the perspective of contribution, the total population, residents' income and urbanization contribute a lot to the inter-provincial differences, totaling 73.02%. The possible innovations of this paper are as follows: First, the contribution of the influencing factors to the difference of inter-provincial HEC is studied, which is rarely seen in the previous literature. Second, compared with traditional decomposition method, counterfactual decomposition method is more convenient for economic interpretation. Third, the divergent conclusions of scholars are pointed out in this paper, and the actual impact of influencing factors on HEC are clarified.