Dynamic downscaling of wind speed over the North Atlantic Ocean using CMIP6 projections: Implications for offshore wind power density

Abstract

Offshore wind energy is an important agent to fight climate change. However, it is simultaneously very sensitive to climate change. This study analyzes the future changes in wind speed of 10 m above sea surface (V10) in the North Atlantic Ocean and how these variations may affect offshore wind energy resources for three potential subregions (the United States (US) East Coast, western Iberian Peninsula, and the Caribbean Sea). Dynamic downscaling of three different future scenarios of the CESM2 global climate model (CMIP6 project) was performed using the WRF-ARW atmospheric model. V10 is expected to decrease in the winter and spring seasons but increase in summer and autumn, mainly in tropical regions up to 30 °N. Annually, it shows the maximum increase in the tropical region. For the Iberian Peninsula subregion, significant increases in summer are expected for wind power density (WPD) along the 21st century, but there is uncertainty for the other seasons. A WPD decrease in winter and increases in summer and autumn are expected along the 21st century for the US subregion. No significant changes were observed at annual scale. Finally, for the Caribbean Sea, a decrease is projected in the Yucatan Basin and considerable increases are foreseen for the Colombia and Venezuela basins.