Dynamic delay risk assessing in supply chains

Abstract

To be competitive, supply chains must be able to analyse and to evaluate, in real-time, critical differences between the short-term planned actions and the actual performed actions generating states of undesirable or unacceptable risk. The authors propose in this study, a method for monitoring the dynamic evolution of risk associated to delays affecting the transportation operations. They use the failure mode and effects analysis around failure scenarios and they evaluate risk using probability and cost. A failure scenario probability is estimated dynamically in discrete points based on event occurrences during the process execution. Delay risk is then assessed on-line and preventive actions can be undertaken before execution ended. The implementation of this method is performed by monitoring a delivery process facing risks associated to delays in the transport stream.