Dynamic-Deep-Ensemble-Learning Scheme for Probabilistic Voltage Stability Margin Estimation to Enhance Resilient Power Grid Monitoring

Abstract

Modern power grids are characterized by significant penetration of renewable energy sources (RES), variable power demand, and aging transmission infrastructure, all of which contribute to a high degree of operational uncertainty. Such uncertainty complicates the assessment of the static voltage stability in power grids. In response to this challenge, this paper proposes a novel deep ensemble learning-based approach to assess the probabilistic voltage stability margin (PVSM) for strengthening the resilience of power grid monitoring. First, the estimation of the PVSM is formulated as a quantile regression problem. Then, an improved deep quantile regression (iDQR) is utilized to generate a set of quantiles under specific nominal proportions. Next, a dynamic deep ensemble learning (D2EL) scheme based on diverse iDQR models and an improved Choquet fuzzy integral (iCFI) algorithm is proposed to enhance the overall performance of predictive quantiles for the PVSM. The proposed D2EL-based PVSM estimation approach is capable of accommodating system changes in a timely manner, thus providing higher estimation accuracy and stronger adaptability than conventional approaches. A comprehensive numerical study of several test systems is carried out, taking into account uncertain RES and loads, as well as topology changes. The results reveal the impressive performance of the proposed approach in the PVSM assessment.