Abstract
This chapter reviews ideas and work done or in progress which seem to indicate where basic research on human decision processes is going. These ideas have two closely related foci: dynamic decision theory and Probabilistic Information Processing systems (PIP). The chapter begins by presenting the problem of dynamic decision theory and by proposing a taxonomy of human decision tasks to which such a theory should be applied. It then reviews current thought and experimentation in five areas that are crucial to the development of such a theory: information seeking, man as intuitive statistician, sequential prediction, Bayesian information processing, and dynamic programming. Finally, the idea of a probabilistic information-processing system is presented, both as a kind of system which is urgently needed in several military contexts and as a vehicle for research in dynamic decision theory.
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