Dynamic criticality of by-products used in thin-film photovoltaic technologies by 2050

Abstract

Thin film photovoltaic technologies are playing an increasingly important role in the transition to a low carbon economy. Their extensive deployment will require large amounts of raw materials, especially those of companion metals. Concerns about whether the availability of materials will impede the development of low-carbon technologies have led to growing research in resource criticality. However, previous studies on criticality generally provide only static assessment models and pay little attention to the difference between base metals and companion metals. This article makes an attempt to dynamically evaluate the long-term criticalities of companion metals at a global level by combining the supply risk and impact of supply disruption. The results highlight germanium and indium as the elements with the highest criticality; tellurium and selenium exhibit a relatively moderate criticality while gallium and cadmium show very low criticality. The findings will offer proper guidance for stakeholders to address supply shortages in advance and encourage thin film technologies development. Priority measures for high criticality materials are discussed to alleviate the supply disruption potential, such as strategic stockpiling, implementing fixed-price contracts, increasing by-product recovery and secondary supply, material substitution and strengthening global mining.