Dynamic Correlation between the Chinese and the US Financial Markets: From Global Financial Crisis to COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

As China’s economy and the U.S. economy have shown a definite interaction, there is considerable interest in studying the correlation between the Chinese stock market and the US financial markets. This paper uses an Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC)-GARCH to investigate the correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index (SHCI) and the U.S. financial markets, including SP500, NASDAQ, and US dollar indexes. The empirical results show that the time-varying daily and the lag-one correlation between China and the US stock markets have different performances during global events and national events. Compared with the complicated effect of negative events on the correlation of the stock market, SHCI and USD are negatively correlated with higher negative correlation during the global negative events. In addition, we found Chinese investors are more contagious to the news than American investors, indicating that the Chinese government’s policy are more indicated to Chinese investors. Finally, some policy suggestions are provided, and are beneficial to risk prevention and control, and investment.