Dynamic Control of Water Level in Flood Limited Reservoir Based on Intelligent Calculation

Abstract

Determining the flood-limited water level is the focus of the contradiction between flood control and profit-making. The dynamic control of the flood-limited water level of the reservoir is an effective way to ensure flood control safety and realize flood resource utilization. Based on the analysis of the availability of forecast information, this paper conducts a study on the dynamic control of the flood-limited water level in Panjiakou Reservoir. The dynamic control area of Panjiakou Reservoir is determined by the “predischarge capacity constraint method.” On the premise of satisfying the flood control safety of the reservoir, the “prestorage and predischarge method” is adopted according to the real-time forecast information, the water conditions, work conditions, disaster conditions, etc. to develop a dynamic control plan for the flood-limited water level in the main flood season of the reservoir. Finally, based on the improved first-order second moment method (AFOSM), the dispatch risk model of the dynamic control of the flood-limited water level of the reservoir is constructed, and the risk analysis of the flood forecasting system is carried out. The results show that (1) the flood forecast accuracy of Panjiakou Reservoir conforms to the standard of the B-level forecasting scheme, and the results can be applied under the condition of considering the forecast error; (2) it is suggested that the maximum water level of the Panjiakou Reservoir in the main flood season is dynamically controlled to be 218 m. In the case of water supply guarantee rate P = 75 % , compared with the current situation of the flood-limited water level of 216 m, the water supply is increased by 40 million m3, and the flow of electricity is increased by 30 million. The flood control risk rate under the rain leakage error is lower than 0.1, which is the minimum risk level, which is acceptable. However, when the net rain leakage error is greater than 25 mm, there may be insufficient leakage or excessive leakage, which will cause inconvenience to downstream flood control.