Dynamic Connectedness between Crypto and Conventional Financial Assets: Novel Findings from Russian Financial Market

Abstract

In the dynamic landscape of the Russian digital economy and increasing financial openness, crypto assets have emerged as influential players in the financial market. The geopolitical and economic developments after a conflict with Ukraine have presented formidable challenges in the shape of financial and trade sanctions, coupled with the suspension from the SWIFT banking system, has plunged the Russian economy into a precarious situation. The current study delves into the network spillover effects between a prominent crypto asset and various financial assets including equity, exchange rates, crude oil, gold, and commodity futures using daily data from January 01, 2018, to August 31, 2023. The purpose of the study is to provide empirical and theoretical insights into countering the impact of sanctions on Russia, proposing a pragmatic solution for the Russian financial market. The research methodology involves the application of network spillover estimation and value-at-risk analysis. Notably, the findings expose a robust association between crypto and financial assets, where crypto assets play a pivotal role in transmitting risk within the financial landscape. While their impact on other financial assets remains relatively subdued, short-term correlations exhibit volatile fluctuations, often marked by sharp increases in downside risk. Theoretical implications follow the portfolio theory of asset pricing, with extreme risk spillover originating from long-run fluctuations in the crypto market, impacting market sentiment and elevating risk propagation in the Russian financial market. These results carry practical significance for payment and receipt processes, as well as trading activities with foreign countries, presenting essential insights for policymakers and investment decision-makers.