Dynamic conditional score model-based weighted incremental fuzzy clustering of consumer power load data

Abstract

This study proposes a weighted incremental fuzzy C-mean power load clustering algorithm based on the dynamic conditional score model to solve the problems that the predominant power load data mining method only captures the mean characteristics of time series and ignores the heteroscedasticity and sequence correlations. Consequently, this method has unsatisfactory time series clustering and low clustering accuracy. A dynamic conditional score model is constructed to analyze and extract statistical characteristic parameters of a time series to calculate the autocorrelation value of the parameter series. A weighted fuzzy C-mean clustering analysis is performed, and the obtained data weight information is used as input for incremental clustering to improve the clustering accuracy. The DCS model parameter dataset and data weight information are combined, and the clustering analysis of the consumer power load data stream is performed. The power load time series of different companies is given, and the clustering validity indices are defined for the performance analysis to verify the proposed clustering algorithm. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm achieves satisfactory clustering and improves the performance.