Dynamic changes and impacts of accumulated temperature on the Tibetan plateau from 1980 to 2018 based on the fusion of simulation and observation data

Abstract

In the context of global warming, the thermal conditions of the Tibetan Plateau have changed significantly in recent decades. In the present study, we analysed the spatiotemporal variation in T ≥ 0 °C accumulated temperature (AT0) on the Tibetan Plateau from 1980 to 2018 and its effect on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) changes by fusing climate model outputs and ground observations using the High Accuracy Surface Modeling (HASM). Cross-validation revealed that the root mean square error (RMSE) and R2 of the fused data from HASM were 1.593 °C and 0.719, respectively, which were greater than the 5.864 °C and 0.385, respectively, before fusion, indicating that HASM fusion improved the accuracy and that a more accurate AT0 could be obtained. Over the past 39 years, AT0 on the Tibetan Plateau had increased at a rate of 7.53 °C/year. The growth period was extended by 0.46 days/year, while the start and end of the growth period were 0.27 days/year earlier and 0.18 days/year later, respectively. Analysis of the decadal change in AT0 revealed that the areas with AT0 < 500 °C decreased by 5 % and that the areas with AT0 > 2000 °C increased by 6.2 %. However, a slower warming trend appeared after 2010 because of the decreasing rate of the daily mean temperature increase during the growth period. Increasing AT0 also promoted vegetation growth, especially in parts of the southern and eastern plateau regions, with a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.46 on the entire plateau between AT0 and the average NDVI during the growth periods. However, there was a significant negative correlation with a coefficient lower than −0.4 in the Qaidam Basin, and partial correlation analysis showed that the extension of the growth period was the main factor influencing the decrease in the NDVI in the Qaidam Basin.