Dynamic Behavior of Nascent Bioenergy Supply Chains Competing for Shared Resources

Abstract

In our previous work, we presented a novel multi-time-stage input-output-based modeling framework for simulating the dynamics of nascent bioenergy supply chains. The production level within the supply chain at any given time interval is assumed to be dependent on the output surplus or deficit relative to targets in the previous interval or intervals. In our approach, the technology matrix, A, includes coefficients denoting flows of products (e.g., biofuels), intermediates (e.g., feedstock) and environmental goods (e.g., resources, pollutants), while the influence matrix, B, signifies the strength of the influence of flow surpluses and deficits on the supply chain. Introducing a feedback control term enables the system to suppress the undesirable dynamic behavior of the uncontrolled dynamic model such as oscillation or instability. In this paper, we apply our modeling framework to analyze the dynamic behavior of three nascent bioenergy supply chains competing for shared resources. Numerical simulations are used to assess the effects of key system parameters on the growth trajectories of the competing bioenergy systems and the effects of relative time lags in the development of one of the supply chains within the competing system. These numerical simulations show that policy interventions can be systematically imposed to suppress undesirable dynamic behavior in complex energy systems.