Dynamic Banking Systemic Risk Accumulation under Multiple-Risk Exposures.

Abstract

Much of the existing research on banking systemic risk focuses on static single-risk exposures, and there is a lack of research on multiple-risk exposures. The reality is that the banking system is facing an increasingly complex environment, and dynamic measures of multiple-risk integration are essential. To reveal the risk accumulation process under the multi-risk exposures of the banking system, this article constructs a dynamic banking system as the research object and combines geometric Brownian motion, the BSM model, and the maximum likelihood estimate method. This article also aims to incorporate three types of exposures (interbank lending market risk exposures, entity industry credit risk exposures, and market risk exposures) within the same framework for the first time and builds a model of the dynamic evolution of banking systemic risk under multiple exposures. This study included the collection of a large amount of real data on banks, entity industries, and market risk factors, and used the ΔCoVaR model to evaluate the systemic risk of the China banking system from the point of view of the accumulation of risk from different exposures, revealing the dynamic process of risk accumulation under the integration of multiple risks within the banking system, as well as the contribution of different exposures to banking systemic risk. The results showed that the banking systemic risk of China first increased and then decreased with time, and the rate of risk accumulation is gradually slowing down. In terms of the impact of different kinds of exposures on system losses, the credit risk exposure of the entity industry had the greatest impact on the banking systemic risk among the three kinds of exposures. In terms of the contribution of the interbank lending market risk to the systemic risk, the Bank of Communications, China Everbright Bank, and Bank of Beijing contributed the most. In terms of the contribution of the bank-entity industry credit risk to the systemic risk, the financial industry, accommodation and catering industry, and manufacturing industry contributed the most. Considering the contribution of market risk to the systemic risk, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Hang Seng Composite Index, and the Dow Jones Index contributed the most. The research in this paper enriches the existing banking systemic risk research perspective and provides a reference for the regulatory decisions of central banks.