DYNAMIC ASPECT OF FORECASTING DEMONSTRATIVE-PROTEST CRIME

Abstract

When using demonstrative-protest crime, the author realizes the possibilities of the theory of cycles for the knowledge of its essence. The concept of «cycle» in this case can be used in two aspects: dynamic and structural. This article changes the dynamics of demonstrative-protest crime, observed by the cycles of protest activity, which in turn depends on the cycles of political activity. In the conditions of stable development of society, these cycles are formally set by constitutional provisions on the turnover of government bodies, which are carried out by elections. It is no coincidence that the peaks of protest activity are precisely in the year of such elections. However, political activity and election-related activity are not coinciding phenomena. Political activity is on a par with economic, financial and other social activities that are covered by global cycles of social development-equilibrium, destabilization, loss of equilibrium and new equilibrium. These phases have their own formation mechanisms and fundamental determinants, and therefore do not coincide with the formal frequency of elections. Cycles are observed at the turning points of changes, on the features of destabilization and changes in the state, the usual arrangement of events occur, as they occur, the protest activity of citizens and demonstrative protest crime increase.