Dynamic Analysis of Regional Wheat Stripe Rust Environmental Suitability in China

Abstract

Stripe rust is one of the most destructive wheat diseases in China, negatively affecting the production safety and causing yield losses of wheat. Thus, it is important to analyze the environmental suitability and dynamic changes of wheat stripe rust in China. The occurrence of stripe rust is affected by multiple factors. Therefore, this study combined data from various disciplinary fields such as remote sensing, meteorology, biology, and plant protection to evaluate the environmental suitability of stripe rust in China using species distribution models. The study also discusses the importance and effect of various variables. Results revealed that meteorological factors had the greatest impact on the occurrence of stripe rust, especially temperature and precipitation. Wheat growth factors have a greater impact from April to August. Elevation has a greater impact in summer. The ensemble model results were better than the single model, with TSS and AUC greater than 0.851 and 0.971, respectively. Overlapping analysis showed that the winter stripe rust suitable areas were mainly in the Sichuan Basin, Northwestern Hubei, Southern Shaanxi, and Southern Henan wheat areas. In spring, the suitable areas of stripe rust increased in Huang-Huai-Hai and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Guanzhong Plain, and the development of northwestern wheat areas such as Xinjiang and Gansu slightly lagged behind. In summer, wheat threatened by stripe rust is mainly in late-ripening spring wheat areas in Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Xinjiang. This study can provide a scientific basis for optimizing and improving the comprehensive management strategy of stripe rust.