Dynamic analysis of pandemic cross-regional transmission considering quarantine strategies in the context of limited medical resources

Abstract

This work aims to quantitatively analyze the effect of quarantine strategies on controlling the spread of the pandemic in multiple regions under limited medical resources. First, a multi-regional discrete-time susceptible-infected-quarantined -recovered (SIQR) pandemic model considering intra-regional and inter-regional quarantine strategies is proposed. The basic reproduction number of the model is derived and shown to be a non-increasing function of the quarantine control parameters. Due to the limited medical resources, a multi-period model of resource allocation coupled with quarantine control is developed. Numerical results demonstrate that quarantine strategies reduce the speed and size of pandemic spreading. In the context of limited medical resources, intra-regional control is less effective at reducing infected individuals than inter-regional control, and most of the resources are allocated to high-risk regions.