Abstract
The economic behavior is assumed to be explained by a complex of dynamic process, subject not only to varieties of disturbances but also to changes in economic structure, institutions, policies and rules. Then the time series modeling for economic analysis has mainly two purposes. The first is to make forecasts. The second is to provide the essential features associated with the movements of a particular structural economic time series. Naturally, the two roles are not necessarily independent. if we could construct a model that reflects the main features of economic time series, the model would produce an implication for forecasting and for exploring the changes in economic structures, which would be utilized as a basic information for economists or policy makers.
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