Dynamic analysis of dual exchange rates in small open economy

Abstract

Using a model of a small open economy operating under dual foreign exchange markets, free exchange rate for financial transactions and quasi-fixed exchange rate for commercial transactions, this paper analyses the dynamic adjustment of the foreign exchange rates, when terms of trade, and monetary disturbance shocks hit the economy. The results indicate that under such a dual foreign exchange system, the stability of a foreign exchange system requires a sufficient level of official reserves that can accommodate adverse terms of trade and monetary disturbance shocks. Under insufficient reserves, adverse shocks can lead to official reserve depletion and exchange rates divergence.