Dynamic Analysis of Dam-Break Loss Based on Unascertainty Theory

Abstract

As the Water-retaining Structure of reservoir, Earth-Rock Dam was widely used because of a wide accommodation, local material and rapid construction speed .There are 86 thousand dams having been built in our country, 90% of which are earth-rockfill dams. However, the aging and disease of earth-rockfill dams are becoming more and more serious. As time goes by, its security problem gets more and more attention. The risk management of dam is a kind of new concept of safety management which is brought in from abroad. One of the most prominent characteristics is that it is conscious both of its own safety and the effect of downstream, which effectively overcomes the deficiency of today's management mode, and it has practical significance to improve earth-rockfill dams management level , ensuring construction and public safety. The study gives the analysis of the economic developments effect on the dam-break loss, and establishes the dynamic predication evaluation model based on uncertainty theory. The model can effectively reflect the time variant characteristics of dam-break loss, which provides new attempt to dynamic predication of dam-break loss.