Dynamic analysis of a malaria reaction-diffusion model with periodic delays and vector bias.

Abstract

One of the most important vector-borne disease in humans is malaria, caused by Plasmodium parasite. Seasonal temperature elements have a major effect on the life development of mosquitoes and the development of parasites. In this paper, we establish and analyze a reaction-diffusion model, which includes seasonality, vector-bias, temperature-dependent extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and maturation delay in mosquitoes. In order to get the model threshold dynamics, a threshold parameter, the basic reproduction number $ R_{0} $ is introduced, which is the spectral radius of the next generation operator. Quantitative analysis indicates that when $ R_{0} < 1 $, there is a globally attractive disease-free $ \omega $-periodic solution; disease is uniformly persistent in humans and mosquitoes if $ R_{0} > 1 $. Numerical simulations verify the results of the theoretical analysis and discuss the effects of diffusion and seasonality. We study the relationship between the parameters in the model and $ R_{0} $. More importantly, how to allocate medical resources to reduce the spread of disease is explored through numerical simulations. Last but not least, we discover that when studying malaria transmission, ignoring vector-bias or assuming that the maturity period is not affected by temperature, the risk of disease transmission will be underestimate.