Dynamic Analysis and Prediction of Food Nitrogen Footprint of Urban and Rural Residents in Shanghai.

Yuling Xia,Chengsong Liao,Yanzhuo Liu,Dianming Wu

doi:10.3390/ijerph17051760

Abstract

The food nitrogen (N) footprint reflects the amount of reactive N emission and its impact on the environment as a result of food production and consumption to satisfy the basic food demands of an urban population. The N-Calculator model was used to estimate the food N footprint and its dynamic changes in Shanghai from 2000 to 2017, and the auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model was used to predict the food N footprint in Shanghai from 2018 to 2027. The results show that the food N footprint was higher in urban areas (15.3–18.8 kg N/capita/yr) than rural areas (12.6–17.4 kg N/capita/yr) of Shanghai from 2000 to 2017. The change in the food N footprint was consistent with changes in food consumption in urban and rural areas, and the total food N footprint of urban and rural residents was positively correlated with the per capita disposable income and population whereas it was negatively correlated with the Engel’s Coefficient and price index. It was predicted that the per capita food N footprint will gradually decrease in 2018–2027 in urban areas of Shanghai, but it will generally increase in the rural areas. This study will help to initiate policy interventions for sustainable N management and contribute to the achievement of key sustainable development goals (SDGs).

Highlights

Along with economic improvement and the rapid development of urbanization in China, the demand for food has grown rapidly and the corresponding consumption structure has diversified [1, 2]
The estimated food N footprint per capita will decrease in urban areas in the decade, it will continue to increase significantly in rural areas (Table 4). These results indicate that the food consumption structure of urban residents in Shanghai has changed significantly, that is, they prefer to eat low-nitrogen food, their food consumption is more diverse and their diet structure is more balanced
Our results show that the food N footprint of urban residents ranged between

Summary

Introduction

Along with economic improvement and the rapid development of urbanization in China, the demand for food has grown rapidly and the corresponding consumption structure has diversified [1, 2]. In the process of food production and consumption, a large amount of nitrogen (N) is released into the natural environment, which causes an N imbalance in ecosystems [3]. It has been found that the loss of reactive N generated by food production and consumption has a major influence on the N footprint; this is one of the key environmental issues in China [4]. Statistical analyses of the food N footprint are helpful for evaluating the impact of human production and lifestyle on the ecological environment, so as to provide theoretical support for reducing nitrogen emission intensity and optimizing the ecological environment in the future. The information contributes to policy interventions for sustainable N management and to the achievement of key sustainable development goals (SDGs)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion