Dynamic 8-state ICSAR rumor propagation model considering official rumor refutation

Abstract

With the rapid development of information networks, negative impacts of rumor propagation become more serious. Nowadays, knowing the mechanisms of rumor propagation and having an efficient official rumor refutation plan play very important roles in reducing losses and ensuring social safety. In this paper we first develop the dynamic 8-state ICSAR (Ignorance, Information Carrier, Information Spreader, Information Advocate, Removal) rumor propagation model to study the mechanism of rumor propagation. Eight influencing factors including information attraction, objective identification of rumors, subjective identification of people, the degree of trust of information media, spread probability, reinforcement coefficient, block value and expert effects which are related to rumor propagation were analyzed. Next, considering these factors and mechanisms of rumor propagation and refutation, the dynamic 8-state ICSAR rumor propagation model is verified by the SIR epidemic model, computer simulation and actual data. Thirdly, through quantitative sensitivity analysis, the detailed function of each influencing factor was studied and shown in the figure directly. According to these mechanisms, we could understand how to block a rumor in a very efficient way and which methods should be chosen in different situations. The ICSAR model can divide people into 8 states and analyze rumor and anti-rumor dissemination in an accurate way. Furthermore, official rumor refutation is considered in rumor propagation. The models and the results are essential for improving the efficiency of rumor refutation and making emergency plans, which help to reduce the possibility of losses in disasters and rumor propagation.