Dívida corporativa de longo e curto prazo e incerteza da política econômica no Brasil

Abstract

Abstract This article aimed to investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and long- and short-term debt of Brazilian firms traded on the Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão (B3) stock exchange. The discrepancy in previous results raises questions about the current understanding of the relationship between debt and EPU. Separate analyses of long- and short-term debt provide different insights into how corporate decisions are affected. This discrepancy challenges our existing understanding of the complex dynamics between debt and EPU. The research sample consists of 163 Brazilian firms listed on the B3 between 2010 and 2019 on a quarterly basis. The baseline models considered long- and short-term debt as endogenous, taking into account firm and country characteristics. We employed a two-stage system generalized method of moments (GMM-sys) panel approach to deal with potential endogeneity in the estimates. As the debt market plays a crucial role in corporate valuation and performance, it is increasingly important to study the dynamics of long- and short-term corporate debt amidst the challenges triggered by the spread of EPU in the business environment. Clarifying how both long- and short-term debt perform under such pressure is particularly relevant since it reinforces already observed and potential implications for corporate adaptability in the use of external funds. The impact of this study lies in revealing the coexistence of firms’ cautious decisions in seeking representative funds and the conservative position for corporate investments regarding uncertainties that surround economic policy. The findings suggest that higher levels of EPU are associated with a decrease in the use of long-term debt and an increase in short-term debt. In response to increased EPU, companies tend to rely less on long-term debt and instead opt for increased use of short-term debt. These results hold consistently across different proposed specifications.