Duration between marriage and first birth and marital instability

Abstract

This paper considers whether marital instability varies by the duration between marriage and 1st birth among ever-married white and black American women. Analysis of data from the June 1985 Current Population Survey suggests that the duration between marriage and 1st birth has a generally monotonic relationship with the probability of white women separating or divorcing from their 1st marriage; the relationship has remained relatively constant over time. For blacks, no consistent association is found between marital dissolution and the duration between marriage and 1st birth. Black women having a premarital conception and postmarital birth and those having their 1st birth during their 2nd year of marriage have a similarly high risk of dissolution. Conversely, blacks having their 1st birth 8-12 or 25-42 months after marrying have a low probability of dissolution. Childless women and those with premarital births generally has the greatest probability of marital disruption for whites. Racial differences may occur because blacks view the 1st birth and marriage differently than whites. That is, because blacks are much more likely to have premarital births and to have a shorter duration between marriage and 1st birth, blacks and whites in the same 1st birth interval category may be dissimilar and have different values resulting in a differential effect of the timing of the 1st birth on marital instability by race. Caution is needed when interpreting the pattern of association between delayed childbearing (and to a lesser extent, births occuring a few years after marriage) and marital instability. Results for whites were similar at each marriage duration and it is assumed delayed childbearing was not a result of marital instability. Marital instability was expected to have its strongest effect on the timing of the 1st birth during the 1st years of marriage. Marital instability may be partially responsible for the delaying of childbearing among blacks. However, blacks who delay but are married at 1st birth have a relatively low risk of separating or divorcing.