Dual-gap analysis for the Sudan

Abstract

The study is an exercise in dual-gap analysis with reference to the Sudan. Investment and import requirements are estimated for the Six-Year Plan period 1977/1978–1982/ 1983 and are then compared with forecasts of savings and export earnings. The results are compared with the Plan projections of the dominant constraint on growth. The conclusion is that the Plan understates the size of both the domestic savings-investment gap and the foreign exchange gap and that foreign resource flows would have to be approx. 50% higher than envisaged for the target growth rate of 7.5% to be achieved.