Abstract
AbstractIllicit drug epidemics are infamous for their unexpected arrival and their speed of onset. Based on ethnographic work with youthful heroin experimenters in the Baltimore metropolitan area, an explanation was constructed based on circulating stories of drug reputation. An agent‐based model was built in SWARM to evaluate the explanation with good and bad stories about the drug passed among agents, which changed their initial attitudes. On repeated runs with different initial attitudes the model shows wide variation in outcomes and a dampening effect of increased social connections, contrary to epidemiologic expectations. The conclusion spells out implications for drug intervention and social research that relies on single case studies. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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