Drug resistance and epidemiological success of modern Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages in western India.

Abstract

Transmission is contributing to the slow decline of tuberculosis (TB) incidence globally. Drivers of TB transmission in India, the country estimated to carry a quarter of the World's burden, are not well studied. We conducted a genomic epidemiology study to compare epidemiological success, host factors and drug resistance (DR) among the four major Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) lineages (L1-4) circulating in Pune, India. We performed whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of Mtb sputum culture-positive isolates from participants in two prospective cohort studies and predicted genotypic susceptibility using a validated random forest model. We used maximum likelihood estimation to build phylogenies. We compared lineage specific phylogenetic and time-scaled metrics to assess epidemiological success. Of the 642 isolates that underwent WGS, 612 met sequence quality criteria. Most isolates belonged to L3 (44.6%). The majority (61.1%) of multidrug-resistant isolates belonged to L2 (P < 0.001). In molecular dating, L2 demonstrated a higher rate and more recent resistance acquisition. We measured higher clustering, and time-scaled haplotypic density (THD) for L4 and L2 compared to L3 and/or L1 suggesting higher epidemiological success. L4 demonstrated higher THD and clustering (OR 5.1 (95% CI 2.3-12.3) in multivariate models controlling for host factors and DR. L2 shows a higher frequency of DR and both L2 and L4 demonstrate evidence of higher epidemiological success than L3 or L1 in the study setting. Our findings highlight the need for contact tracing around TB cases, and heightened surveillance of TB DR in India.