Drowning incidents and conditions due to hidden flash rips in Lake Michigan

Abstract

Flash rips are episodic bursts of water jetting offshore, which can lead to drowning incidents by sweeping swimmers offshore without warning, thus posing a hidden and unrecognized danger to beachgoers. This study reveals hazards of flash rips by investigating a series of drowning incidents along coasts of Lake Michigan during a series of storm events on July 18–21, 2019. Occurrences and causes of flash rips were depicted through webcam image observations, storm features of atmospheric disturbances, hydrodynamic circumstances of wind waves and meteorologically induced water level fluctuations, and model-reconstructed nearshore circulations. Results shows that flash rips were generated during or after storms through nearshore processes of storm-induced wind waves and meteorologically induced water level fluctuations. With small wind waves, low water level fluctuations, and a timing delay of rip occurrences relative to the causative convective storms, flash rips pose a hidden hazard to unaware swimmers. Historical observations for incidents in Lake Michigan between 2002 and 2019 further show that dry conditions or fair weathers and a calm water signature at the beach can likely generate unexpected hidden flash rips, resulting in the highest drowning risks. There is an urgent need for communication, education, and prediction/forecast of hidden flash rips to the Laurentian Great Lakes and worldwide coastal communities.