Abstract
Mountains are highly sensitive to the effects of climate change, including extreme short- and long-term weather phenomena. Therefore, in spite of relatively high annual precipitation totals, mountains might become endangered by droughts. The paper presents drought trends in the Polish Carpathians located in Central Europe. Data from the period 1991–2020 from 12 meteorological stations located in various vertical climate zones of the mountains were used to define drought conditions using the following indices: Standardized Precipitation (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI), Relative Precipitation (RPI) and Sielianinov. Additionally, four forest drought indices were used in order to estimate the impact of drought on beech as a typical Carpathian tree species, i.e., the Ellenberg (EQ), Forestry Aridity (FAI), Mayr Tetratherm (MT) and De Martonne Aridity (AI) indices. Statistically significant but weak trends were obtained for the 6-month SPI for four stations (indicating an increase in seasonal to mid-term precipitation), for the 1-month SPEI for three stations, for the 3-month SPEI for four stations, and for MT for all stations (indicating an increase in drought intensity). The analysis of dry month frequency according to particular indices shows that at most of the stations during the last decade of the study period, the frequency of dry months was much higher than in previous decades, especially in the cold half-year. Two zones of the Polish Carpathians are the most prone to drought occurrence: the peak zone due to the shift in climatic vertical zones triggered by the air temperature increase, and the forelands and foothills, together with basins located about 200–400 m a.s.l., where the mean annual air temperature is the highest in all the vertical profile, the annual sums of precipitation are very diversified, and the conditions for beech are already unfavorable.
Highlights
Drought is a phenomenon that negatively affects many economic sectors
All the indices used in the study are based on data concerning air temperature, precipitation or both
For all stations included in the study, an increase in mean annual air temperature has been observed; the regression analysis showed that it was statistically significant at p < 0.05
Summary
Effects and intensity, drought can be classified into four types: meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and socio-economic [1]. The pan-European study showed that in the 1990s and 2000s, drought hotspots were identified in the Mediterranean and Carpathian Regions; in the latter, drought severity and duration were highest in Hungary and Slovakia [4]. The Carpathians are located in Central Europe where the future drought risk is estimated to be relatively high with projected increases in hydrological, agricultural and ecological droughts at mid-century warming levels of 2 ◦ C or above, regardless of greenhouse gas emission scenarios [6]. Studies concerning droughts in the whole region were based on gridded data (e.g., [5,7,8]) and showed that the region’s lowlands are much more endangered than the mountains. National-level studies confirmed the results for the lowlands and revealed the complexity of the issue in the mountains
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