Drought Scenario Analysis Using RiverWare: A Case Study in Urumqi River Basin, China

Shalamu Abudu,Hamed Zamani Sabzi,James Phillip King,Zhuping Sheng

doi:10.28991/cej-03091118

Shalamu Abudu, Hamed Zamani Sabzi + Show 2 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.28991/cej-03091118

Copy DOI

Abstract

In this study, we applied RiverWare modeling approach to evaluate the management decisions on surface water and groundwater diversions in the agricultural watershed of the Urumqi River Basin of Xinjiang in Northwestern China. A rule-based daily time step RiverWare model was developed to simulate the hydrologic effects of different water management alternatives considering irrigation and drainage systems, crop water use, and diversion rules at the diversion dams within the basin. Daily data period from 2005 to 2009 was used to calibrate the model and 2010-2012 was used to validate the model. A calibrated daily RiverWare model was then used to evaluate the management decisions under different drought scenarios that generated by using the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) that developed to simulate inflow from upstream of Yingxiongqiao gaging station. Two drought scenarios (reduced precipitation and increased temperature) analysis were performed, and the corresponding hydrological variables were compared to the baseline scenario. The results indicated that the model adequately reproduced the historical inflows for the Wulabo Reservoir. The scenario analysis results suggest that the reduced precipitation led to increased groundwater pumping for irrigation both in the spring and summer. The increased temperature induces a significant increase in surface runoff in the basin and leads to increased crop water demand within the irrigation district, and however does not necessarily reduce the groundwater pumpage. Water operation policies from RiverWare provide guidelines for conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water resources within the basin under different water supply scenarios in the future.

Highlights

Mountain snowmelt-fed rivers in northwestern China are the primary water resource supply for public use, agriculture irrigation, environmental use, hydropower and other purposes
For inflow calibration at the Wulabo Reservoir, both time series and scatter plots between the modeled inflow and recorded inflow indicated the acceptable performance with a coefficient of determinations of 0.66 and 0.49 for calibration and validation periods, respectively
It is observed that there are some errors when simulating reservoir inflow in the summer both in calibration and validation period. This may be due to the complexity of the system at this river sections that are affected by substantial human intervention, during the summer irrigation season when water demand is high

Summary

Introduction

Mountain snowmelt-fed rivers in northwestern China are the primary water resource supply for public use, agriculture irrigation, environmental use, hydropower and other purposes. Global climate change has already affected the local hydrology and water cycle in these areas [1]. Due to increasingly frequent and severe periods of drought and growing demand, the river alone no longer meets the regional water needs, leading to increased groundwater extraction and dropping water tables [4]. This is especially true in the Upper Urumqi River Basin, which supports the primary vegetable supplier to the populous Urumqi, the capital city of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, China. Persistent drought, climate change and population growth in the region pose significant challenges in the management of limited water

Methods

Results

Conclusion